BVR Briefing – The Real Story of COVID-19 For Valuation and Litigation Experts

July 2020 PDF

Mark Dietrich

Business Valuation Resources, LLC

This timely Briefing includes a focus on the healthcare sector. 

Healthcare valuation expert Mark Dietrich (Mark O. Dietrich CPA, PC) has done over a hundred hours of research digging into the “science” of COVID-19—its origin, how it spreads, protection methods, testing, and other issues. You might wonder what all of this has to do with the valuation and financial community.  The answer is that for the economy to recover, these matters must be understood. “Much of the economy is highly localized and the nightmare that existed in the greater New York City area and the northeastern United States has now spread ominously to the South and Southwest, and even California,” says Dietrich. “That will impact future cash flow of the smaller businesses most of us work with.” 

This BVR Briefing updated through the July 4th weekend cuts through the morass of information offered up by “experts” and goes directly to the source data in various scientific journals and fact-based websites to figure out the real story. What the physician scientists think is going on with this disease is important because, as Dietrich says, “I simply don’t think that we can forecast anymore if we don’t know that.”

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Table of Contents

About the Author

Introduction

Part 1. Getting to the Truth about COVID-19

1-1. Probability versus Statistics

1-2. Origin of the Virus

Known or Knowable?

1-3. Transmission

Death Counts and Death Certificates

1-4. To Mask or Not to Mask

1-5. All Healthcare is Local

Hospital Beds

Local Statistics

What Happened in New York?

What Happened in South Korea?

1-6. Will Testing Save Us?

Testing Accuracy and Inaccuracy: Let's Do the Math

What is 'Herd Immunity'?

1-7. Where Do We Go From Here?

All Healthcare is Local

Regulatory Overload

Supply Chain

Uneven Access to Healthcare

Do More Doctors Equal Better COVID-19 Outcomes?

Is Healthcare Spending Positively Correlated With Pandemic Control?

1-8. Forecasting Cash Flow

Unemployment and Decreased Consumer Spending

Insurers and Premiums

Loss of Healthcare Coverage

Billing 'Out-of-Network' and Private Equity

Increase in State Income Taxes

Nursing Home Industry

Closure of Smaller Hospitals and/or Consolidation With Larger Health Systems

Physician Practices

Planning - or Speculating - About the Future

1-9. What Do I Tell My Clients - Business, Valuation or Otherwise?

1-10. Epilogue

June 15, 2020

July 4, 2020

Part 2. Healthcare Valuation in the Coronavirus Era: That Was Then, This Is Now

2-1. Overview

2-2. Data Sources

2-3. Statistics versus Probability

2-4. World Health Organization

2-5. A Look at the Science of COVID-19

2-6. Structural Issues in Addressing the Pandemic

2-7. All Healthcare is Local

2-8. Revelations

2-9. Responses

2-10. Prognostications on Valuation

Appendix

Look Inside the Briefing

BVR Brief Covid Healthcare 2020