Focusing on the equity markets in the U.S. and across the world, Professor Aswath Damodaran (New York University Stern School of Business) has posted his second data update of 2024. He notes that the “mood has shifted” in the past year and the 2024 outlook is “much sunnier, with the consensus shifting to a soft landing and inflation largely under control.” But he sees a “challenge for equity market investors” and concludes that stocks are “overvalued by about 9%, to start the year.” In his post he has links to two datasets:

• Historical Returns on Stocks, Bonds, Gold, and Real Estate (1928-2023); and
• Historical Implied Equity Risk Premiums and Expected Returns (1960-2023).

Also, he provides two spreadsheets:

• Implied ERP calculator—Jan. 1, 2024; and
• Valuation of the S&P 500 on Jan. 1, 2024.

You can read his post (and see his video) if you click here.