Deloitte’s latest CFO survey for Q4 2020 should provide an emotional lift for all business leaders and valuers—even though the survey was conducted the week before the new COVID-19 restrictions were announced on 19 December and the Brexit deal on 24 December.

Deloitte reports that these finance leaders expect a return to growth in 2021 with optimism rising to a record high—though most do not expect their own businesses to recover to prepandemic levels until the last quarter of 2021 or later.

Surprising key forecast findings include:

• CFOs’ optimism rating in the new survey achieved a 12-year high. In fact, 71% expect their revenues to rise over the next 12 months, up from 29% in Q3 2020.
• These financial leaders see the Brexit trade deal, which came after the survey closed, as a positive, at least compared to the impact of the no-deal alternative, which was reviewed as a significant risk to the economy.
• Brexit is viewed as having far less impact on CFOs’ own businesses than the economy as a whole.
• Half of CFOs think it will take until the last quarter of 2021 or later for their own revenues to return to prepandemic levels.
• Finance leaders expect levels of home-working to rise fivefold by 2025 compared to prepandemic levels and forecast higher levels of taxation and regulation in the longer term.
• CFOs still feel cautious about significant investment. Only 19% believe it is a good time to take greater risk onto the balance sheet. Deloitte notes this is up from just 3% in Q1 2020.

This is the 54th quarterly survey of chief financial officers and group finance directors of major companies in the UK.