New paper offers improvement to the Gordon growth model

BVWireIssue #210-1
March 4, 2020

valuation method
gordon growth model, discounted cash flow (DCF), growth rate, cash flow projections

Capitalization 2.0—Terminal Value Under Changing Capital Structure” is a new paper by Mike Adhikari (Business ValueXpress Software), a valuation and M&A advisor. The Capitalization 2.0 methodology is designed to improve on the simple Gordon growth model (GGM) and uses a recently developed advanced growth model (AGM) formula. GGM assumes that the capital structure of the business will remain constant and that the debt principal will never be repaid. Because of this, GGM can overvalue a business by 10% to 50%, according to Adhikari. AGM considers that, even when the business is growing at a constant rate, the debt principal may have to be paid down, and hence the capital structure will change. Unlike the GGM formula, the AGM formula is complex (although it has only three more input variables), so the paper includes a link to a spreadsheet of both the GGM and the AGM formulas that can be downloaded for free.
Please let us know if you have any comments about this article or enhancements you would like to see.