Long-term inflation estimates rise, per Kroll infographic

BVWireIssue #237-2
June 15, 2022

valuation methods & approaches
economic forecast, projections, economic conditions

Long-term inflation expectations for the U.S. and Germany, a key starting point to evaluate the long-term growth rate used in the terminal year of DCF analyses, are significantly higher when compared to June 2020, at the height of the COVID-19 crisis, according to a newly updated infographic from Kroll. For the U.S., inflation estimates over the long-term rose from 2.0% in June 2020 to 2.6% in May 2022. For Germany, long-term inflation expectations have surged from 1.6% in June 2020 to 2.6% in May 2022. The “Cost of Capital in the Current Environment” infographic tracks the impact of COVID-19 on some of the financial market and economic indicators used to support the Kroll (Duff & Phelps) recommended U.S. equity risk premium (currently 5.5%) and accompanying normalized risk-free rate (currently 3.0%).
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