The latest cost of capital infographic from Kroll says that inflation seems to have topped out toward the end of 2022. Inflation estimates over the long term rose from 2.0% in June 2020 to 2.9% in October 2022 but declined to 2.4% at the end of December 2022. Long-term inflation expectations are a key starting point to evaluate the long-term growth rate used in the terminal year for a DCF analysis.

Cost of capital inputs: The same infographic says that, as of Jan. 17, 2023, Kroll’s recommended U.S. equity risk premium (ERP) is 6.0% and the normalized risk-free rate is the higher of 3.5% or the spot 20-year U.S. Treasury yield as of the valuation date. This guidance is effective when developing USD-denominated discount rates as of June 15, 2022, and thereafter.