Implied ERP at 5.2% per Damodaran’s data update

BVWireIssue #208-4
January 29, 2020

cost of capital
cost of capital, discount rate, equity risk premium, private company valuation, risk analysis, cost of equity

Professor Aswath Damodaran (New York University Stern School of Business) has done his annual posting of data updates on his website that include risk-free rates, equity risk premiums, corporate default spreads, corporate tax rates, country risk premiums, and other data. He will do a series of posts on his blog based on this new data. The first post has already been done and serves to “set the table.” The ERP has been a favorite topic of the professor, and he uses a forward-looking method he calls the “implied” ERP as opposed to the “historical” ERP. “I back this number out from the current market prices and expected future cash flows, an IRR for equities that is analogous to the yield to maturity on a bond.” He estimates the implied ERP to be 5.20% at the start of 2020, and he reports the year-end estimates of the premium going back to 1960. 
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