D&P lowers U.S. normalized risk-free rate to 2.5%

BVWireIssue #214-3
July 22, 2020

cost of capital
cost of capital, discount rate, private company valuation, risk analysis, cost of equity, equity risk premium (ERP)

Duff & Phelps has decreased its recommended U.S. normalized risk-free rate from 3.0% to 2.5% for use as of June 30, 2020, according to a client alert. This new rate, used in conjunction with a (reaffirmed) recommended equity risk premium of 6.0%, implies a “base” U.S. cost of equity capital estimate of 8.5% (6.0% + 2.5%).

Most use spot yield: The concept of normalizing the risk-free rate emerged around the time of the 2008 financial crisis and is generally based on historical rates. A number of thought leaders disagree with the use of a normalized rate, including Professor Aswath Damodaran of the New York University Stern School of Business, who wrote that “you should be using today’s risk free rates and risk premiums, rather than normalized values, when valuing companies or making investment assessments.” In a BVWire survey from last year, most respondents said they use the 20-year spot yield on Treasury bonds for their risk-free rate. A quarter of respondents said they use the D&P normalized risk-free rate.

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