In a new paper
, John R. Graham
and Campbell R. Harvey
of Duke University analyze the history of the equity risk premium from surveys of U.S. chief financial officers (CFOs) conducted every quarter from June 2000 to December 2017. The risk premium is the expected 10-year S&P 500 return relative to a 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield. The average risk premium is 4.42% and is somewhat higher than the average observed over the past 18 years, the paper says.
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