Pablo Fernandez continues to release research that may assist UK business valuers working on reports with valuation dates in Q1 2020. His latest study, Shareholder Return of the EURO STOXX 50 Companies: 2004-2020 (April 30) analyses 62 companies: 47 current members in the EURO STOXX 50 with trading records since December 2004 and 15 prior member companies. Fernandez finds returns since 2004 that would disappoint, since the initial COVID-19 market crises is included. The average annual return for these top listed companies was 4.8%, and 19 had negative returns.
Eduardo de Apellaniz, also of the IESE Business School, co-wrote the study.
The top performers during this 16-year period? ASML would have been your best bet, followed by Kering, Deutsche Boerse, LVMH, and Adidas.
COVID-19 is definitely a factor. Not surprisingly, in the first four months of 2020, only six of the EURO STOXX 50 had positive return and the average return was -24.4%. Even considering only the period December 2018 to 30 April 2020, 26 companies had positive return, but this group, as a whole, lost value, with an average return of -3.2%.
Most global markets including the LSE have now recovered more than half of their losses from March and April but the volatility continues to suggest that COVID-19 continues to damage values. Financial analysts are considering or using increased market risk premia, multiple-scenario forecasting, and ‘impaired’ pricing from listed comparables, among other methods, to account for the economic change.
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